"I read an article today that took my $100 billion price target for Facebook a bit further and predicted that Facebook — not Apple and not Google and certainly not Exxon or GE — would be the first trillion dollar company. And why not?"
Here's my reply of why not:
1. Competition
2. FTC
3. Legislation
4. No "moat" - see #1
5. Lack of a product that consumers "need". Want? perhaps...for a season...
6. Is Facebook more of a business - or more of a fad? I'm inclined to vote fad...you know how those end, don't you?
7. Saying "a Trillion dollars" is easy. Reaching it? Not so much.
8. Natural selection. These companies live in a vibrant business ecosystem. There are predators out there too. The ant is everywhere - and a very efficient biological machine - but they don't rule the world either.
9. Things that rocket up - usually crash hard
10. The Meeks Dark Energy Conjecture: the internal politics of an organization will begin to tear itself apart as it approaches a market cap equal to the combined market cap of GOOG, AAPL, and IBM.
Note: Today's combined market cap is roughly $679.02B
AAPL - $310.76B
IBM - $201.86B
GOOG - $166.70B
