Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts

Thursday, May 26, 2011

2011-05-26 Thursday - My response to Cody Willard's Trillion Dollar post

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2011/05/26/facebook-apple-and-google-will-each-be-worth-a-trillion-dollars
"I read an article today that took my $100 billion price target for Facebook a bit further and predicted that Facebook — not Apple and not Google and certainly not Exxon or GE — would be the first trillion dollar company. And why not?"



Here's my reply of why not:


1. Competition

2. FTC

3. Legislation

4. No "moat" - see #1

5. Lack of a product that consumers "need".  Want? perhaps...for a season...

6. Is Facebook more of a business - or more of a fad?  I'm inclined to vote fad...you know how those end, don't you?

7. Saying "a Trillion dollars" is easy.  Reaching it? Not so much.

8. Natural selection.  These companies live in a vibrant business ecosystem.  There are predators out there too.  The ant is everywhere - and a very efficient biological machine - but they don't rule the world either.

9. Things that rocket up - usually crash hard

10. The Meeks Dark Energy Conjecture: the internal politics of an organization will begin to tear itself apart as it approaches a market cap equal to the combined market cap of GOOG, AAPL, and IBM.


Note: Today's combined market cap is roughly $679.02B
AAPL - $310.76B
IBM - $201.86B
GOOG - $166.70B

 

2011-07-28 Update:

Geoffrey B. West, “Why Cities Keep on Growing, Corporations Always Die, and Life Gets Faster”

http://blog.longnow.org/2011/07/26/geoffrey-b-west-%E2%80%9Cwhy-cities-keep-on-growing-corporations-always-die-and-life-gets-faster%E2%80%9D/

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